Hedge Fund Exec Expects Bitcoin to Hit New All-Time High in Q4 2024, Regardless of U.S. Election Outcome
CK Zheng, co-founder of crypto hedge fund ZX Squared Capital, has made a bold prediction for Bitcoin (BTC), expecting the leading cryptocurrency to hit a new all-time high in Q4 2024, regardless of the outcome of the upcoming U.S. presidential election. In an interview with Cointelegraph, Zheng emphasized that neither of the major candidates has offered a feasible solution to address the growing U.S. national debt and fiscal deficits, a scenario that he believes will drive bullish sentiment for Bitcoin.
Zheng’s projection aligns with historical trends, which have seen Bitcoin rally significantly in Q4. According to data from CoinGlass, Bitcoin has surged by more than 50% during the final quarter of the year six times since 2013. As both macroeconomic factors and favorable market conditions converge, the hedge fund executive is confident that BTC will break past its previous all-time highs by the end of 2024 or shortly after.
Election Uncertainty and U.S. Economic Concerns Drive Bullish Bitcoin Outlook
With the U.S. presidential election just around the corner, economic uncertainty looms large. CK Zheng pointed out that neither of the candidates has laid out a concrete plan to address the nation’s debt and deficit issues, which could continue to deteriorate regardless of who takes office. As the U.S. debt continues to mount, investors may increasingly look to Bitcoin as a store of value and hedge against traditional financial instability.
Zheng explained that Bitcoin’s decentralized nature makes it an appealing safe haven asset in times of macroeconomic uncertainty. He believes that unresolved debt issues and potential economic turmoil in the U.S. will push more investors towards Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and fiat currency depreciation.
“Neither candidate has offered any real solutions to the growing debts and deficits. That uncertainty, paired with unresolved fiscal issues, is very bullish for Bitcoin,” Zheng noted in his interview. “Investors are looking for alternative assets, and Bitcoin is becoming an increasingly attractive option.”
Bitcoin’s Strong Q4 Historical Performance
Zheng’s bullish outlook is supported by Bitcoin’s historical performance in the fourth quarter. According to CoinGlass, Bitcoin has experienced major price increases during Q4 on several occasions, with the cryptocurrency rising by over 50% in the final quarter of the year six times since 2013.
The seasonal Q4 rally has become a recurring trend in Bitcoin markets, driven by factors such as end-of-year institutional allocations, renewed retail interest, and general market optimism. Zheng expects that 2024 will be no different, with macro tailwinds providing additional momentum.
While Bitcoin has experienced periods of volatility and price corrections throughout 2024, its long-term upward trajectory remains intact. If the Q4 trend follows its historical pattern, Bitcoin could be poised for another significant surge, potentially surpassing its previous all-time high of $73,666, which it reached in March 2024.
Impact of U.S. Federal Reserve Policy
Another critical factor contributing to Zheng’s bullish Bitcoin outlook is the U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. In response to economic challenges and efforts to curb inflation, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has made several adjustments to interest rates. Recently, the Federal Reserve implemented a 50-basis-point rate cut, a move that many analysts, including Zheng, believe could be highly bullish for Bitcoin and other risk-on assets.
Zheng explained that if the U.S. economy achieves a “soft landing”—avoiding a severe recession while managing inflation—Bitcoin is likely to benefit. The rate cuts, designed to stimulate economic activity, could push more investors towards riskier assets like Bitcoin, as lower interest rates reduce the appeal of traditional savings instruments.
“Historically, Bitcoin has thrived in periods of loose monetary policy. If the U.S. economy avoids a recession and benefits from these rate cuts, it could fuel a renewed interest in risk-on assets like Bitcoin,” Zheng added.
The possibility of a soft landing combined with the rate cut suggests a bullish scenario for Bitcoin, further supporting Zheng’s prediction of a new all-time high in the coming months.
Why the U.S. Election May Not Affect Bitcoin’s Trajectory
While elections often introduce market volatility, Zheng believes that the outcome of the 2024 U.S. presidential race will have a limited impact on Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory. Regardless of who wins, unresolved debt and deficit concerns will likely persist, maintaining a favorable environment for Bitcoin as a decentralized asset.
Zheng emphasized that the broader macroeconomic landscape is the driving force behind Bitcoin’s performance, rather than political leadership. “Bitcoin operates independently of political outcomes. The larger issue is the U.S. economy, and neither candidate has presented a clear path forward on resolving the fiscal issues. That is why I believe Bitcoin will hit a new all-time high, regardless of who wins the election.”
Bitcoin’s limited correlation to traditional macro variables, such as stocks and bonds, also supports Zheng’s viewpoint. As more investors view Bitcoin as a store of value, it is increasingly perceived as “digital gold”—a hedge against fiat currency devaluation and economic instability.
Potential Risks and Challenges
Despite the optimism, there are potential risks that could impact Bitcoin’s performance in Q4. Regulatory uncertainty remains a significant factor, with both U.S. lawmakers and international regulators paying closer attention to cryptocurrencies. New policies or regulatory developments could introduce short-term volatility in the crypto market.
Additionally, the global macroeconomic environment could introduce challenges. While the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts are expected to boost risk-on assets, unforeseen economic shocks—such as geopolitical tensions or further economic slowdowns—could alter the landscape.
Zheng acknowledged these risks but remained confident in Bitcoin’s long-term outlook: “Every asset faces risks, but Bitcoin has proven resilient. It continues to attract institutional interest and serves as a reliable hedge against economic instability.”
Conclusion: Bitcoin’s Path to a New All-Time High
As the U.S. presidential election approaches and economic uncertainty continues to rise, Bitcoin may be on the verge of reaching a new all-time high. According to CK Zheng, the hedge fund executive from ZX Squared Capital, unresolved debt issues, favorable Q4 historical trends, and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy all point to a bullish outlook for Bitcoin.
While political outcomes may not directly affect Bitcoin’s long-term performance, the broader macroeconomic factors will likely drive investors toward decentralized assets. With Bitcoin’s strong track record in Q4 and favorable economic conditions, the cryptocurrency is well-positioned for significant gains in the coming months.
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For more insights on how macroeconomic factors impact Bitcoin’s price movements, check out our detailed guide to Bitcoin’s market cycles, where we explore the key drivers behind Bitcoin’s performance and what to expect in the future.
